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Does Splitting Keller ISD Affect Property Values? A Data-Driven Study


One major concern people have about splitting the school district is the potential effect on property values. This concern is logical, as we've seen in other areas of this report that there are significant differences between the proposed west side and east side school districts. Differences exist in school ratings, overall property values, demographics, and voting habits. Given these variations, it seems reasonable to ask whether school district boundaries influence home values.


To determine the effect that school district boundaries have on property values, my team aimed to isolate school district designation as the primary variable. Our goal was to find homes in the same market area with similar quality of construction, year built, and lot size while controlling for proximity to external factors such as highways, shopping centers, and golf courses. Ideally, the best way to measure this would be to identify a subdivision split in half by a school district boundary. If the homes on either side of the street are otherwise comparable, then any difference in price would likely be attributed to the school district.


Initially, we performed micro-analyses in small areas that met this criterion. However, limiting the dataset to only recent comparable sales within these narrowly defined areas produced sample sizes that were too small to base solid conclusions upon. Instead, we broadened our scope and conducted a large-scale analysis using the full MLS history, limiting only for geography. This broader approach gave us a larger, more representative dataset. Importantly, while the microanalysis alone did not provide enough data to draw conclusions, it consistently supported the findings of the large-scale analysis, strengthening our confidence in the results. 


Key Finding: School Districts Adjacent to K.I.S.D. Have Limited Impact on Home Prices 


One reason school district designation has a limited influence on home values is that buyers prioritize a variety of factors when selecting a home. The National Association of REALTORS® 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers illustrates this well. According to NAR's study, fewer than 5% of any cross-section of surveyed home buyers listed the school district as their primary reason for purchasing a home.


Other studies indicate that 26% of people move less than five miles. Even buyers who may have been influenced by school district boundaries likely did not consider it their primary motivating factor. Instead, ISD boundaries often act as an initial constraint, pre-determining a buyer’s search area. Because buyers start their search within their chosen ISD, the school district itself becomes a baseline criterion rather than a deciding factor. Once within their geographic target, other factors such as affordability, home size, and amenities take priority. This dynamic makes it difficult to quantify the true impact of school districts on home values, but all available data clearly shows that their effect is minimal.


It’s important to note that a study analyzing school districts with a larger discrepancy in school ratings—indicating major differences in the quality of schools or other factors—might reveal a greater impact on property values. However, in this analysis, the variations between Keller ISD and the neighboring districts studied did not result in significant differences in home prices.



National Association of REALTORS® | 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers






Subdivision-Level Comparisons


1. Villages of Woodland Springs – Keller ISD vs. Northwest ISD


All sold properties recorded on MLS. Only geographic restriction. No date restriction or any other filter.



 

  • Villages of Woodland Springs - Keller ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $253,000
    • Historical Average Price: $264,643
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $93.54
    • Number of Properties: 84

 

  • Villages of Woodland Springs - Northwest ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $256,000
    • Historical Average Price: $274,155
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $106.64
    • Number of Properties: 55


 Conclusion: Prices are nearly identical, with a slightly higher $/SqFt in Northwest ISD.


2. Villages of Woodland Springs – Keller ISD vs. Northwest ISD




  • Villages of Woodland Springs - Keller ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $157,000
    • Historical Average Price: $182,729
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $74.32
    • Number of Properties: 73

 

  • Villages of Woodland Springs - Northwest ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $164,000
    • Historical Average Price: $187,329
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $83.79
    • Number of Properties: 45


Conclusion: Sales prices remain consistent across both districts.




3. Park Glen Addition – Keller ISD vs. Birdville ISD


  • Park Glen Addition - Keller ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $193,000
    • Historical Average Price: $231,642
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $83.16
    • Number of Properties: 55

 

  • Park Glen Addition - Birdville ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $185,000
    • Historical Average Price: $222,255
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $88.17
    • Number of Properties: 39


Conclusion: No significant pricing difference.

 

4. Foster Village Addition – Keller ISD vs. Birdville ISD




  • Foster Village Addition - Keller ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $118,681
    • Historical Average Price: $153,951
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $76.58
    • Historical Number of Properties: 56
  • Foster Village Addition - Birdville ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $117,300
    • Historical Average Price: $134,632
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $86.03
    • Number of Properties: 63


Conclusion: Median prices remain nearly identical.

 

5. Foster Village Addition – Keller ISD vs. Birdville ISD



 

  • Foster Village Addition - Keller ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $116,000
    • Historical Average Price: $139,172
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $81.67
    • Number of Properties: 79
  • Foster Village Addition - Birdville ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $108,200
    • Historical Average Price: $132,927
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $77.80
    • Number of Properties: 40


Conclusion: Consistent home values.




6. Foster Village Addition – Keller ISD vs. Birdville ISD




  • Foster Village Addition - Keller ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $106,500
    • Historical Average Price: $149,950
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $81.65
    • Number of Properties: 43

 

  • Foster Village Addition - Birdville ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $125,425
    • Historical Average Price: $128,246
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $88.18
    • Number of Properties: 24


Conclusion: Prices remain comparable.

 

7. Reagan Estates vs. Bbb & C Survey




  • Reagan Estates - Keller ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $340,000
    • Historical Average Price: $569,001
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $182.78
    • Number of Properties: 9

 

  • Bbb & C Survey - Grapevine-Colleyville ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $340,000
    • Historical Average Price: $473,984
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $165.05
    • Number of Properties: 9


Conclusion: No significant difference in home values.


8. Remington Park Addition – Keller ISD vs. Grapevine-Colleyville ISD



 

  • Remington Park Addition - Keller ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $555,000
    • Historical Average Price: $599,135
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $134.64
    • Number of Properties: 23

 

  • Remington Park Addition - Grapevine-Colleyville ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $550,000
    • Historical Average Price: $597,228
    • Historical Median $/SqFt: $139.58
    • Number of Properties: 61


Conclusion: Nearly identical home values.


Final Conclusion

This comprehensive analysis across eight areas confirms that school district boundaries do not create a significant impact on home values. Despite buyer perceptions about school districts, market data does not support a measurable price difference between homes in Keller ISD vs. neighboring districts.

 

Bonus: School District Wide Study


This doesn’t really have a bearing on anything KISD related. I just know some people are wondering about this, so I thought you might appreciate the extra data on how these school districts compare to one another as a whole.


  • Northwest ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $435,000
    • Number of Properties: 3,597

 

  • Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD
    • Historical Median Price: $343,865
    • Number of Properties: 2,396

 

  • Carroll ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $1,284,500
    • Number of Properties: 398

 

  • Birdville ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $328,990
    • Number of Properties: 1,512

 

  • Grapevine-Colleyville ISD

    • Historical Median Price: $630,000
    • Number of Properties: 764

 

Current day Keller