Is the Texas Economy in a Bubble or about to Blast off?
CNN Money is asking the question Is Texas America's Best State Economy?. Lets just look at some facts: Last year the state (GDP) grew 5.2% 3 of the 5 fastest growing US cities are in Texas and 5 out of the top 20 (Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Dallas, and Fort Worth) Housing is undervalued (compared to rents) Unemployment is 4.2% compared to the national average of 5.5% The median income is $75,000 which is 20% higher than the national median Median home price is $243,000 which is higher than the US average, but with incomes so high, it makes housing very affordable. Forbes says Texas is the best place to invest in real estate because housing shortages + low real estate values + high incomes = real estate values will rise (appreciate) More Americans are moving to Texas than any other state because of jobs and affordable housing Strong or growing industries: tech, transportation, real estate, mining, manufacturing, textiles, food Weak? really just 1: oil & gas Texas is the best city for jobs with 4 cities ranking in the top 10 Huffington says its time to buy a house now Most recent updates 6/26/15 - Texas is up 4% over 2014, making records, still the fastest growing in the nation despite suffering in the energy sector. They believe we're not in a bubble and still predicting record highs. Builders are focused on high end. 6/30/15 - Statistics show Texas real estate appreciates at 8.8% 8/14/15 - This report is from June, but I wanted to list it. The source is here: http://recenter.tamu.edu/econ/ I could go on and on. The fact that Texas is considered the best place for investors (ie bottom feeders) to buy real estate is enough for me to feel confident that things are looking up. The investors aren't getting wild discounts on properties, they just know that today's high prices will look low compared to what home values will be in the near future. The only thing that points toward a bubble is the rate at which real estate is appreciating, however according to all of the other metrics, the appreciation is warranted. In fact, its long past due and should continue for some time. It may not keep up the same pace, but house prices will continue to climb. One thing to be aware of... news outlets will begin reporting on "slowed appreciation" and make it sound like we're crashing. When you hear the alarmist reports just keep in mind: slow appreciation is still appreciation. If home values begin to depreciate keep a sharp ear opened for the actual rate of depreciation. Make your decisions based on the facts and do your best to ignore the noise. Lets enjoy the fun ride.
Read MoreHUGE Announcement & Your New Property Tax Deadlines
I fear that tax values are going to skyrocket this year. I recorded this video to share what you need to know: I bookmarked the video here: HUGE Announcement 0:45 Real estate market update 3:55 Property tax disaster exemption application 9:00 New tax protest deadlines - 10:04 Next Steps: Business Leaders, Sign up here Personally support Chandler Crouch How to support 3 bills to permanently improve property taxes I am just ONE person. But TOGETHER we make up an army. A coalition. A force for good! Please help spread the word
Read MoreHow to Prepare for Your Property Tax Protest, TAD Election Results, Real Estate Market Update
This past year, we protested on over 16,800 properties. We helped draft and pass a property tax reform bill with State Representative Matt Krause and we played an integral part in the Tarrant Apprisal District (TAD) Board of Directors Election - all for free. None of these accomplishments would have been possible if it weren't for the clients that chose our team of expert realtors to help them buy or sell their property. We all owe these clients and all our incredible team a debt of gratitude. In this video: 1:27 How to prepare for your tax protest 2:30 Update on TAD election results 6:42 Real Estate Market Update - Past 8:40 Real Estate Market Update - Present 9:37 Real Estate Market Update - Future How to prepare for your tax protest The first step to prepare is to wait until your property tax value notice is received which will happen sometime within the first 2 weeks of April. If we are registered to protest for you this year, it will take us until mid-April to deliver your value notice because we need to digitize them and send them to you through email. If you are not currently registered with us, you may sign up for free at freetaxprotest.com. Update on TAD election results A couple months ago TAD had their Board of Directors Elections and we saw a few issues with the election process. There was a big push to renominate and reelect the current board of directors. There would have been no change over the next two years if this happens. We are thankful that we got involved and we asked for your help. The results were mind-blowing. With your help, 3 new members were elected: Kathryn Wilemon, Rich DeOtte and Gary Losada. We have been to every board meeting since they got elected and they are doing a great job asking tough questions, identifying the truth in every issue, and innovating ways on how to improve the system. Real estate market update If you are waiting for a good time to buy a house because you want real estate prices to fall, historically, we have not seen them fall, even through the worst of times. Interest rates and our strong housing market are keeping our inventory levels low. Inventory levels could be heading even lower. The lower the number gets, the stronger the real estate market is. Once again, our appreciation would never be enough to repay you for all your support. If you know anybody thinking of buying or selling a house, please send them our way. It is how we fund everything that we do. You can absolutely count on us, it will be an honor to serve you.
Read MoreBroken New Year's resolution, Homestead Exemptions & Market Update
Let's start the year (Well, I said "start" since we are still in the first quarter, right?) with a few pep talks-- on broken New Year's resolution, homestead exemptions, market update and property tax protest. I have made timestamps so you can skip directly to the exact topic of your interest: 0:00 Intro 0:32 Broken New Year's Resolution 3:32 Homestead Exemption 4:19 January Market Update 4:26 Sales Prices 5:15 A look at supply 5:40 Accuracy of sales numbers 8:54 Property Tax Protest Broken New Year's Resolution I will bet to my last dollar, you have broken your New Year's resolution. But let me tell you something. I did some reflecting during our company Christmas party last year when we recognized our top-performing employees. It dawned on me that at the end of the year, what we really value are the positive things and we do not dwell so much on losses and negativity. Another thing, most people choose to not lose, but we need to get out of the comfort zone, do the things that we have never done before. Homestead Exemption People who bought the home last year didn't qualify for homestead exemption until January 1st of this year. They still have until the end of April to have it filed. You may check out our video about filing your homestead exemptions here. Market Update You can see a trend in sales price, however we also discussed how these numbers may not be accurate yet, and explain the reasons why such thing happens. Details with facts and figures are explained starting at 4:19 in the video above.
Read MoreHow to Sign up for Santa Home Visit & December Market Update
I can't believe it's already December! This month's video is different. If you saw our live Halloween facebook video, you heard about all of the upcoming plans we have over the holiday season. Many people have been asking for an update, so this video is your answer! This video is longer than most, so I made timestamps so you can skip directly to the exact topic of your interest: 0:00 Intro 0:52 Update - How we fed 57 foster families a Thanksgiving dinner (Thank YOU!) 1:40 Update - Chandler's botched "Dog Father" attempt 2:29 Update - Chandler on his experience running his first marathon 3:00 How to sign your child up for a free Santa home visit (first come first serve) www.chandlercrouch.com/santa 4:00 December real estate market update 4:40 Month's of inventory (absorption rate) 5:33 A look at supply 6:45 A look at demand 8:30 Median sales price 11:10 What does this mean for sellers 11:45 What does this mean for buyers 12:10 Tax protest tips
Read MoreMarket Update - Feeding Orphans - Free Santa Home Visit
Scroll below the video for a text summary. 0:45 November real estate market update 5:55 How we're feeding 56 orphans/foster families and what you can do to help 9:35 How to get Santa to visit your child at home for free Market Update Inventory levels are softening because demand is down. Supply remains steady. Home prices continue to stay strong. Details with facts and figures are explained starting at 0:45 in the video below. Feeding 56 Foster Families for Thanksgiving This year we are partnering with CJ Wilson with foodtronix.com feeding 56 foster families. We need your help: Volunteer to cook. Sign up here. Help by delivering a meal. Sign up here. Donate to feed a family here: mychosenones.org Click "Give" in the top right corner. Click "special instructions" then enter "Thanksgiving Mission." This will ensure the funds go to the appropriate place How to get Santa to visit your child at home for free Santa is going to take a break from managing the elves to visit a few lucky families this year, for free. We have an overwhelming demand for this. As a way to thank our volunteers, we will give priority access to sign up for Santa home visits to the volunteers of our Thanksgiving foster feeding mission.
Read MoreMarket Update - Is the bubble popping?
The most recent real estate sales numbers show a pretty grim change in our local real estate market. Inventory levels are up almost 14%, demand has dropped off a shelf, and it seems as if the sky is falling... but is it really? In this month's real estate market update video Chandler and the Team take a deep dive into the numbers, consider recent headlines, and put the most recent market changes into perspective. Also, learn about an exciting company announcement, and discover where you can get free mulch and dispose of your toxic trash (paint cans, tires, batteries, etc) for FREE!
Read MoreWill I Pay Tax When I Sell My Home - Capital Gains Explained
The IRS changed the rules in 1997 that stated you had to sell your residence and buy another house within 2 years. This rule no longer applies. Now the IRS doesn’t care what you do with your money when you sell. Under the newest changes, you must have lived in your previous home for at least 2 out of the last 5 years. If, however, you rented your house out during your ownership, the situation gets more complicated and you should consult a tax expert. A single person may qualify to exclude up to $250,000 of that gain from your income, or up to $500,000 of that gain if you file a joint return with your spouse. Certain exceptions exist for uniformed personnel, owners that lived in a nursing home, experienced divorce, or death. There are a few misconceptions and avenues you can tad advantage of that I'd like to clear up. Q: What if it wasn't my primary residence... Can I still avoid capital gains? A: Yes You can avoid having to immediately pay capital gains tax selling an investment property through doing a 1031 exchange. To qualify you must purchase another investment property of equal or greater value than your current property. Use the gains from the previous property sale to purchase the new property. Also, the new property must be considered "like-kind", which basically just means it's used for a similar type of investment. For example, if you're selling a house, you must buy another house. If you're selling a retail commercial building, you must buy another retail commercial building. There are some timing factors and logistical measures you need to be aware of that aren't very complicated but you will find helpful to get some guidance on. For help or questions, just contact our office. We would be glad to walk you through a purchase involving a 1031 exchange. Q: Can I claim a capital loss if I lose money on the sale of my home? A: Unfortunately, no You must report and pay tax on unexempt capital gains from the sale of your personal residence, but you can never claim a capital loss on the sale of a personal residence. For some reason, the government allows deductions on certain capital losses on investment property, but not on personal use property. The good news is that you're on the right website to help avoid losses. Our track record shows that we sell houses for considerably more than the average agent, and have many times set a new record price for highest sale in a subdivision. Q: Are moving expenses always deductible? A: Yes sometimes, but not always You can only deduct moving expenses that are work-related under certain strict conditions. If you are moving for purely personal reasons, they are never deductible. If your company is relocating you, then you should take a closer look to see if your moving expenses are deductible. A few things to consider - it really helps if your job move and house move are within 1 year of each other, and you're moving at least 50 miles away. If you are self-employed or have any kind of part-time or limited employment, the rules get a little sticky. You should consult a tax advisor to get more details under these circumstances. Have more tax questions? Just give us a call or contact us any time. We would love the opportunity to serve you.
Read MoreChandler Gives Update On Property Tax Protest
In case you don't already know, last year we helped over 3200 people protest their property tax value for free. This year our goal is to help 6000. I just wanted to give you an update on where we're at on that... We're working hard to get things ready so that when we help with your property tax protest, everything runs smoothly without any trouble. The appraisal district needed to get further approval fro some technology we're using to help make the process streamlined for you. It shouldn't be too much longer, but we have until May 15th to turn everything in, so we're still in great shape. Chandler and the team recorded a video just to provide an update (see below). Also, Chandler will be speaking to several home owner's associations, community groups, possibly a chamber of commerce or two, and other types of groups to teach homeowners how to protest and provide some tips etc. If you know of any groups that might appreciate hearing from us on that, please let me know asap. Our calendar for speaking engagements is filling up pretty quick. In the meantime, if you have any other real estate related questions, please don't hesitate to reach out. We're here to help any way we can. Have a great day!
Read MoreWhy real estate prices crashed in January. 1 BIG Tax Protest Change. Amazon & Pillow Talk
I put together a short video with our team that covers some current issues. Don't have 10 minutes? Jump to the section that interests you most or scroll below the video to see abbreviated notes. What's in the video: 0:00 - 0:44 Why real estate prices crashed in January: 0:45 - 2:45 Pillow talk 2:46 - 4:23 Do this 1 thing NOW to save thousands when you sell your home 4:24 - 5:38 What you need to know about Amazon moving their headquarters to DFW 5:39 - 7:50 1 big change to Tax protests this year 7:51 - 9:39 Real estate prices are down, which was expected. December was a record month and we expect to see significant price gains in February. Pricing is a result of the relationship between supply and demand so in the video I show you exactly where demand and supply levels are at and discuss what this means for you. Amazon recently announced that they are moving their headquarters. Dallas Fort Worth is one of 20 areas under consideration. This would bring 50,000 new jobs over a 10 year period of time. Watch the video to learn which key factors play a role in their decision process. Recent changes in the Texas Real Estate Commission (TREC) contract could cost you thousands if you don't know about them and take action now, well ahead of your plans to sell your home. Now all repairs must be completed by a licensed professional. This means after you get under contract, you can't fix anything in the house without calling a licensed professional. What may have cost you just $5 to do on your own will now cost as much as $75 when considering that most professionals will charge you a trip fee just to show up. The main tax protest deadline this year is going to be May 15 instead of May 31. There is no need to act on this information now. They plan to send value notices out around April 1st. As soon as they do, we'll be on top of it to help. We are making preparations to help a record number of people. If you know someone that would reliably show up on time, do great work, treat it like a high paying job, but would be interested in volunteering to help, please send them my way.
Read MoreMy Pillow, New Year's & Last 2017 Market Update
This video is different than any other we have ever released. I have been reflecting on 2017 and thinking about what 2018 will bring. I had a little fun with it and just thought I would share my thoughts. You'll hear what I got for Christmas, how to make a successful New Year's resolution, a thank you message for 2017, and your real estate market report for Tarrant County Texas as well as a hint on what the real estate market is expected to do in 2018. Enjoy! Video Content Time Stamps: https://youtu.be/2pNJkksLJtU 0:16 What I got for Christmas - "My Pillow" and the answer revealed... Is it the most comfortable pillow I've ever owned. 1:43 My 1 tip on how to make a successful New Year's resolution 2:19 Walking on water and Aux'ing Link to song by Thirty Seconds to Mars https://youtu.be/44NYFvhXmW8 5:14 What happened in 2017 - I must say Thank You! 7:00 Real estate market update - The Bottom Line 7:35 2018 Real estate market forecast https://youtu.be/2pNJkksLJtU
Read MoreReal Estate Market Update for October 2017
Click the market update you would like to see: Fort Worth Real Estate Market Update Keller Real Estate Market Update Entire DFW Metroplex Real Estate Market Update Heritage & Crawford Farms Real Estate Market Update Discover the answers to these questions... Is it a bad idea to sell in fall and winter? Are we in a bubble? How does the market look? 0:30 Tax protest update 1:20 market report 1:32 median price trend 2:25 if you have your house on the market now 2:45 how the news affects you 3:08 effect of seasons on pricing 3:20 cause of new demands on housing 3:30 spring and summer vs fall and winter 3:50 how we can help you personally for free 4:20 contact info
Read MoreChandler Crouch Realtors in the News!
Exciting times at Chandler Crouch Realtors! We've been featured in a number of recent stories via local news outlets. We're happy to be in a position to help so many people. Lauren Zakalik with WFAA Channel 8 interviewed Chandler on May 17th about the tax increases in Tarrant County, and what Chandler Crouch Realtors is doing to help the local community. You can read that story in its entirety and watch Chandler's interview with Lauren by clicking here. When some folks found out that their homestead exemptions dropped from their TAD appraisal without warning, CBS's Jason Allen stepped in to help get the story out. Click here to read more and watch Chandler's interview. In a follow up to WFAA's story on what Chandler Crouch Realtors is doing to help out local homeowners, Jason Wheeler invited Chandler to do a live interview on WFAA Channel 8 to discuss what homeowners should do to get their taxes lowered. To view that video, click here and scroll to the bottom of the page, and play the last video on the page titled "Is it worth it: How to fight your property taxes assessment." We're thrilled to be able to provide a service like this to our local community!
Read MoreThe Truth About the Keller Tennis Court Bubble Dome Proposal
There is quite a controversy surrounding a proposed 27 acre, 35 court private Birth Tennis Club at Rocky Top Ranch built by Taylor Dent will include two large bubble domes to provide a weather proof tennis facility for its members. The proposed development will be located in Keller near Johnson and Keller Smithfield Road. Opposition was so strong that the Keller City Council is now required to have a super majority (6 out of 7 votes) to approve the project. The entire opposition of the Keller Bubble seems to be about property values. Will this create enough of an eye sore to detour people from buying houses in the area?In real estate the way we value residential property is through a “sales comparison approach.” We look at previous sales of properties that compare ("comps") with the subject property. That's all you have to do in this situation.Only 2 large bubble-like structures come to mind.Comparable Example 1:Valley Ranch Dallas Cowboys inflatable structure built 2003 (same one that collapsed in 2009):Median Sales price in 2003: $190kMedian Sales price today: $415k218% increaseComparable Example 2:The dome in Argyle TX for Cross Timbers Church built approx 2003Median Sales price in 2003: : $255kMedian Sales price today: $452k177% increaseCompare that with the entire Dallas Fort Worth metroplex:2003: $130kToday: $234k180% increaseA couple things to note:It’s impossible to isolate the 1 variable of installing an inflatable dome. Many other factors affect market value. I just think if you compare enough of these markets, you’ll be able to know whether or not installing an inflatable structure correlates with reduced increase in property values. Causation is different than correlation, but its the best we’ve got.Every inflatable structure is different. Valley Ranch was significantly more attractive than Cross Timbers. Distance and proximity of residential housing to the inflatable structure may also matter.Another thing, you just aren’t going to find a private tennis club in a low-class area. There is a status appeal to living near something like this. My hypothesis is that putting the inflatable structures closer to the interior of their 26 acre lot would be sufficient to mitigate any negative effect on property values. There are also many different types of inflatable structure products. Requiring a more attractive version may be in both parties best interest. I'm not for or against the project. I'm 100% for the community. I just think if both sides work together, the community will benefit greatly. There's bound to be a middle ground in the situation.If you’re interested in learning more about the real estate market, check out this market analysis I recently did for North Fort Worth area. If you have questions about the Dome or its effect on local property values, please feel free to contact me.Chandler Crouch, Broker / Owner Author of Proven Strategies to Sell Your House for Top Dollar
Read MoreNorth Texas DFW Real Estate Market Report
The market in North Texas is hot. Watch this video for an complete market update:
Read MoreNEWS: Secret Interview About Bubbles Makes the News
This is exciting! I hope this never gets old. I found this in my inbox this morning: After discussing real estate bubbles with superb journalist Andrew DePietro, he wrote 2 articles and used our company as a source! This guy writes incredibly well. See what Andrew has to say about real estate bubbles in his article 6 States With the Biggest Real Estate Bubbles. And the article Top 20 Cities Where Home Prices Are Skyrocketing. To get all my thoughts on real estate bubbles and how Texas is affected by the current economic conditions see the blog post Is TX in a Housing Bubble (and my forecast).
Read MoreIs TX in a Housing Bubble? and my Forecast
I wrote this in bullet point format to save you time. My take on housing: Employment and housing are related. We have experienced way above average growth in employment, incomes, and overall prosperity and it’s reflected in home values increasing. Not to mention in a period before our boom home prices were essentially flat for 5 years. When people think of the TX economy oil is top of mind, however TX actually has a very nice range of diversity among various (less thought of) job sectors/industries - manufacturing, construction, trade/transportation, education, info/tech mining/logging, financial, leisure/hospitality/tourism. When one is doing poor others are great. The oil bust isn’t devastating for this reason. Housing is driven by supply and demand Demand: Twice as many people migrated to TX than any other state since 2005 (this includes over 1.4 million folks through domestic migration). Supply: Home starts are way up, but home construction in the DFW area is still less than 60 percent of the volume before the recession. Existing home inventory is 3.5 months compared to 4.9 US average. Cost of housing: Despite high demand and low supply we still have some of the most affordable housing in the country. It’s still cheaper to buy than rent (by roughly 3%). Other supporting factors: Home equity laws help support fluidity of sales. No state income tax. Large tax base coming from RE taxes means govt interest in stable housing long term. Concluding question: We lead the country in population growth, job growth, our housing is cheap, its more expensive to rent, and we have a housing shortage. Why shouldn’t we lead the country in housing? (answer: We should. And we are. And we’re not in a bubble) My current assessment: TX as a whole is not in a bubble. Midland is in a bubble (they’re economy is primarily fueled by oil). Houston, Austin, San Antonio are borderline. DFW is healthy. My Forecast: Housing will slow down, however there will be no bubble pop. It’ll go from mind blowing to just pretty good (which will still better than almost anywhere else in the country). Bonus: My take on bubbles: A bubble happens when a boom is caused by something other than supply and demand… Usually when high (but false) expectations lead to speculative purchasing which drives prices into misalignment with market fundamentals. If the rise is sharp, but still supported by market fundamentals, it isn’t a bubble no matter how big the boom is. My take on the Fitch report: Fitch has been reporting that we’re overvalued since 2014. If they just say it long enough, they’ll eventually be right. The reality is we weren’t overvalued in 2014 and we aren’t now. Fitch and others point toward a bubble in TX because they know oil is down and they don’t realize that the TX economy is well diversified among many sectors outside of energy.
Read MoreNorth Texas Real Estate Forecast for 2016
Doesn't this sound horrible: "Dipping job growth will slow Dallas area real estate market" On the surface, I would assume this is bad news... But is it REALLY? ... no, not even close. This is actually the exact thing that I predicted in my Bubble or Blast Off post when I said this: "One thing to be aware of... news outlets will begin reporting on "slowed appreciation" and make it sound like we're crashing. When you hear the alarmist reports just keep in mind: slow appreciation is still appreciation." So how is our economy? In the Dallas Morning News, Steve Brown reported on the 2016 North Texas Real Estate Market Forecast delivered by Jim Gaines, the chief economist at the Real Estate Center (TAMU), at a recent Metrotex Association of Realtors meeting... Jim says all is well. These two quotes sum up the entire forecast: “We’re still going to grow next year,” he said, “but at a slower rate.” “But the slowdown is from a record high to a little bit less,” he said. “Growth in Dallas-Fort Worth has accelerated enormously."
Read MoreNorth Texas Home Sales Up 16 Percent in Sept
I've been hearing a lot of agents say their business has slowed down lately. The interesting thing is that most agents believe their personal experience is an indication of a macroeconomic trend... Sometimes it actually is and sometimes it isn't. The newest article published by Steve Brown in the Dallas Morning News says home sales haven't slowed down at all. In fact, they're up 16%. If you're thinking about selling, I wouldn't wait. The market is hot. It will slow down. You're in the window of opportunity right now. If you're thinking about buying, don't let this fool you... Any amount of money you would have saved in a down market is NOTHING compared to the amount you will save by taking advantage of the 3.8% mortgage rates we currently have. If it jumps to 4.8%, you're spending roughly $130,000 more over the life of the loan. Also, the sooner you buy, the sooner you get to enjoy increasing property values. The longer you wait, the more you have to pay. The market is hot for a reason. Buyers and sellers are both winning. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Read MoreTexas 2nd in Relocations Last Year
Texas ranked 2nd in the nation for relocation activity last year according to the 2015 Texas Relocation Report released by the Texas Association of Realtors. This is great info. Here are the highlights: Texas is #2 in the country for population gains from out-of-state residents in 2015 (behind Florida). Texas ranked #3 for number of residents moving out of state in 2014 (behind California and Florida). Texas had a net gain of 103,465 out-of-state residents in 2014 Harris and Dallas counties are the two most active counties in Texas.
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